Trying to upgrade a couple friends on a HNL-DEN flight in December, and things are not looking good. A bunch of seats just disappeared, and now inventory in F is only 6 vs. about 13 a week or two ago.

One thing that is a bit surprising to me is the fare difference between refundable economy (M class) and first class (A class)... only $100. $1,250 vs. $1,150 ... with that little disparity in price between instant upgrade and first class... more people are probably buying straight up... this is something I have seen more of in the last couple years... cheaper tickets in the F cabin = more purchased seats, less PN/R inventory. Not good for instrument use.

I have had a few instances this year where the price difference between my purchased fare (usually in E or M) is only $100 difference between A or Z in first, and I will pay out of pocket for it after booking if the flight is 3+ hours. Many times that I have done this, space in PN/R has never opened up, and I would likely have failed on an upgrade bid with an instrument.

Are many people out there ending up in situations where they have expiring instruments?