Originally Posted by
pantsman
The reason being it seemed cheaper, but unreliable and hard to plan. For example, American claims that for a South American trip, I can upgrade to Business for 15,000 miles from a refundable economy. That's only about $150 worth of miles.
Whereas buying it outright seems like a lot more.
I think you underestimate the cost of refundable economy. I searched DEN-SCL round trip for early December and the discount economy cost is $914 while refundable cost is $6,482 for the same flights. Not a typo.
You could upgrade the discount fare ($914) for 25k + $350 each way for a total cost of 50k miles + $1,614, pending upgrade availability. Or you can book an award flight for 100k miles round trip, pending award availability. So, the question is, would you pay $1,500 (I'm allowing for some taxes & fees on the award) for 50k miles? AA will sell you 62k for $1,500 right now, and that's after all the taxes and their junk fee.