I got that. But the period of time is not a year, it will be from when he hit DM in year 1 (almost certainly late for a normal PM) until early year 2. And this is very likely only a few months. And a period of time in which he would fly 25K.

So not a year, more like a quarter year. And he is risking the DM status on all year 3 (which he would have had w/o the spend) if the refund play fails.

To be clear:

. OP strategy works: DM late year 1 till Feb Year 4.

. OP strategy fails because "spend" does not clawback: DM late year 1 till Feb year 3

. OP never hits spend exemption: DM early year 2 till Feb year 4

So he is risking losing about 3/4 year status to garner an extra 1/4 year. And that seams like a bad play considering how possible it is DL/Amex wil catch on.

Also, if his strategy fails he enters year 3 with 50k less carry than with either other strategy.