Don't forget you also don't see things like standby lists and staff load on Expertflyer - I think on EK21, there might be a good chance of an op-up J-F

But of course, I would not create an expectation of an op-up because that way lies only disappointment, should it not materialise. After all, people miss their connections all the time...! Also, DXB-UK mileage upgrades are some of the best value uses of miles around, so even if you don't get it, I'd probably do an on-board upgrade...