I try to measure points/miles based on how much value I receive from them for my normal award uses (as compared to what I would have spent on some sort of reasonably comparable hotel if I'd had to use cash). On earning side I do the same: estimate how I realistically earn points, including all promotions, over time.

IMHO, Marriott has *reasonably* held the line over the years on the overall redemption value equation. There has been a little leakage due to category creep and a little due to weaker promotions. But nothing nearly as bad as HHonors (two major systemwide devaluations in 5 years) or Starwood (which had a huge fraction of the program value baked into promotions and then all but eliminated the best ones).

On the plus side, redeeming Marriott has genuinely gotten easier since they eliminated the two-tier availability structure.

I don't think hotel programs (or airline programs for that matter) will ever be what they were in the early years of the programs. I believe I personally benefited from a solid decade-plus of participation in MR (and HH) before hotel programs were widely talked about or prominently advertised. Most of my traveling friends were more likely to give an AA or UA number to a hotel clerk until the early 2000's. That meant a lot of non-participating guests were subsidizing the participating ones, and the cost of the program in terms of total award rooms redeemed was fairly manageable.

Now everybody plays the game (granted, some better than others), and there's less of this "knowledge arbitrage" opportunity available for anyone.