The "downgrade" aspect of all this doesn't sound quite right since the natural expectation would be to have status continue -- for this year, anyway. I've never heard of any status anywhere for anyone getting downgraded mid-year for any reason . . . ever. And old Avis First = new Avis Preferred Plus.
My new status comes from a World Elite MC, and so there may be a contractual wrinkle or two thrown in there as well.
I guess we'll see for sure very shortly, one way or the other.