After the decision to choose Gateway’s offer we still have a long way to go for this happen or not. 4 main reasons:

1 – The Socialist Party

There’ll be a general election in October 2015 and the SP have been very clear in their intention to reverse the privatization in case they win. Due to the time constraints explained below it looks very unlikely that the actual social democratic government will be able to transfer the stock before October.

2 – Green light from the regulators

The decision will have to be vouched by at least 4 different commissions, the competition and transport commissions of the UE and the competition and civil aviation authorities in Portugal. Although it might be possible for the government to speed things up locally it’s anyone’s guess how long will the UE bodies take to decide on this.

3 – Efromovich’s opposition to the decision

Efromovich is analyzing the possibility of contesting this decision in both the portuguese and UE courts. Formally a portuguese transport company called Barraqueiro is the majority shareholder of Gateway with 51% and Neeleman has 49% in order to comply with UE ownership rules on airlines. Efromovich might contest this and also the reasons to loose the bid.

4- Actions in Court

There are presently 2 popular lawsuits brought by independent citizen groups presented in the Supreme Administrative Court in Portugal against the privatization. Although the government argued public interest on the sale no decision has been so far made by the courts.

It’s very doubtful that all the above questions can be solved until October so this deal might ride on who wins the next general election.