Just interested in soliciting opinion: flying EWR-SEA on Friday morning on L-fare. I put in an MPU at time of booking, but it hasn't cleared with 3 seats left in F. It appears 1 person already cleared the upgrade list (maybe a GS?), and I'm not hugely optimistic about getting upgraded prior to T-24. As such, thinking about doing SDC, mainly because 1) I'm flying by myself, so don't need to ask permission to change the booking, 2) I'd be interested in flying a route I haven't done (in this case, DEN-SEA), and 3) I may have a better chance getting the MPU redeemed elsewhere.

So my choices boil down to this...which one would people try to focus on first?

1) Stay on my current flight and cross finger I get the bump, whether by late MPU redemption or CPU (in my dreams)

2) Try to change to the earlier departure nonstop to SEA, which does have R availability currently but no L fare class (it has changed a few times today - had L=5 earlier, then showed no economy fares, then went back to L=5, now showing L=0 and only 1 seat available for higher economy fares)

3) Try to change to EWR-DEN-SEA. EWR-DEN has tons of availability (L=9) but no chance of getting upgraded (F is entirely booked), DEN-SEA shows has T-fares (so just above L, but not quite there) but has R availability - so if I can get an L-class, I can probably get myself upgraded.

The other related question - if T-24 I am not upgraded, I should get the miles redeposited into my account right away, correct? I.e. I wouldn't need to pay a redeposit fee if I tried to SDC.