Originally Posted by
SJC AA
Put it this way, I would estimate that you have an 80% chance of making your connection with no checked bags, and 50% with checked bags. Is it worth doing laundry during your trip to avoid a 30% chance of a forced overnight at JFK?
Those are absurd estimates. The OP is likely to make the connection with or without checked luggage. Chances are that his luggage will be on the carousel by the time he gets out of immigration.