Thanks for the data point BSBD.
Sounds like (after reading other threads) I have a chance, but not a great one. Seems it can often be up to the individual interviewer (if I get that far).
Maybe I should start w/ paying for the pre-check.
(p.s. With my 'free' pre-check via DL I've only NOT got it maybe 5 times in 3+ years, but 3 of those times have been in the last month or so)