IIRC when I upgraded my Citibank AAdvantage Mastercard to the Citibank AAdvantage Executive World Elite Mastercard, I had to wait 90 days from the date I asked for the upgrade. They said at the time it had to do with the Dodd-Frank act and that I could change my mind within the 90 days. So I basically agreed to the upgrade and had a 90 day period in which I could change my mind and after the 90 days passed I received the new card. I hope it is not the same thing. That might explain why the first people offered the Silver card back in November had until December to except as after that date would start the 90 day probation period. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
I as well don't want to waste spend on the Red card at $30k to qualify and then find out I will have to spend another $40k to get the 10k EQM. Although it will only have to be done once to step up from Red to Silver it would be a waste of spend that I could apply to another card.