The only way we are going to get more data points is for you, and me, and others to apply for personal cards that we know we cancelled several years ago, and see if we receive a bonus. Applying for a card that we might have had doesn't help. We have to be certain we are not eligible under the literal terms, and see if American Express's history goes back far enough to detect it.
Damn, we have this threat up for a year now, but still need more data?

I have not applied for any Amex card in a year so not sure.
Data points, anyone?