The 2:10PM arrival is probably best. You'll all probably sleep at least a little bit on the plane and will be able to stay awake when you arrive until a more normal sleeping time.

Different people are affected more or less by jetlag, though. The problem isn't just the amount of sleep you get or staying up an extra 8 hours that first day. Your brain doesn't adjust its own internal clock in a single day; it still thinks it's day when it's night and night when it's day for a little while. (It just thinks you slept through the day that first night.) For some people this isn't a big deal, but you never know how it'll affect you until you try it.

I've done JFK-NRT more than 20 times and even if I think I've done things perfectly to avoid jetlag (slept a bit on the plane, timed things so I sleep at 11PM the first night), I still find myself wide awake at 5AM and out like a narcoleptic at about 3PM for about the first 4-5 days. My wife is usually ok outbound but is even worse than that coming back.