Confronting the issue at the time the decision is made, e.g., before the 2:00 PM pushed, there is no way of knowing whether the 2:00 PM will cancel and there will be no availability on the 4:30 PM or whether the reverse is true.

On the other hand, all things being equal, the 2:00 PM gave OP 2.5 hours of additional connection time and thus, the chances of making it to his final destination were improved had he taken the 2:00 PM, despite the fact that the 2:00 PM ultimately cancelled.