Some math that might interest those eyeing Asia trips...the AP to USDM conversion is really only a good gamble if you intend on flying F, not so much in J. And the gamble is better if you want to travel to Japan/Korea and not Souteast Asia.

I'm talking from a position that thinks AA will eventually devalue the miles. Here are my numbers using one-way rates (I think they work):

Southeast Asia (listed as HK and China on the AA grid)
If I take 75k AP to fly J one-way to the region, multiply by 84% = 63k USDM/AA points. That's 15% higher than the 55k AA points it costs to do this trip. I look at that as the "devaluation" percentage of AA point that would make me ambivalent between the two (ignoring YQ, for now).

For F, AA points would need to "devalue" by 31%.

For Japan and South Korea
J devaluation "tolerance" is 26% while F is 41%.

In my opinion, the chance of seeing a 15% devaluation of AA points (for J to HKG for example) is pretty decent. 41%...not so much.

Does that make sense?

Another consideration is obviously YQ. If you're not paying YQ on the AA partners, then you should be more tolerant of potential devaluation. Other than EVA, YQ is high on AC, OZ and NH.

Then there's the carriers...CX/JL vs. NH/BR/OZ. A few more options out of Star Alliance, but quality-wise I think I'd be ok with any of them.

Just something to to think about. I've got a bunch of AP points, so I'll probably transfer 100k. I really have my eye set on JL in F. Was considering doing it one-way using Avios, but that devaluation really killed it as an option.

And...also a good way to top up or start an AA balance, especially if you're also looking for a place to park/convert some Avion points.