Yes. Airlines receive a whole lot of revenue from banks from affiliate credit cards. The airlines believe, correctly or not, that this revenue is profitable. If customers switch to non-affinity cash back cards like Barclaycard Arrival Plus or Capital One Venture, that revenue will end.

Customers will switch to cash back when miles and points become clearly worth less than 2% (or even 1%) cash back. Due to inertia, that switch will lag by several years. Once the switch starts in earnest the airlines will have a very difficult time reversing it. FlyerTalk is a leading indicator of when that switch will begin. I look for it to start this year. I believe Southwest has already passed the point of devaluation needed to kick off the big switch. I'm going to make that move myself later this year.