I'm having trouble following when you say redemption value with OZ miles on AI is poor. In theory, all *A partners have the same inventory for redemption, so doesn't matter which program you go with.

As for upgrades, basically at the level you're planning to achieve, it'll be nearly zero on both programs and you wouldn't be *G so also zero on partner flights.

I'd closely compare award charts for regions relevant to you, flexibility of changing award bookings, cost (or lack thereof) of changing award bookings, and availability of one way awards if comparing two programs that I was going to utilize for 25k a year.