Originally Posted by
winnipegrev
I think that was his point, that with the long flights they do that cycles won't be an issue as total hours will reach maximum before cycles come close. Not that cycles aren't applicable.
Much like AC's 777s. The 77Ls have averaged flights ~10 hours long their entire life, so they will come up against maximum hours in approx. 20 years when they have only flown 25% of their max cycles if it continues. Though the 763s will be much closer to max cycles than that.
The oldest AC 763s are still more than 30,000 hours from their design life, and who knows if that may be extended like the A320s.
Yes but when you think of it 30,000 hours the way Air Canada flys them is about 6/7 years out. After that they could in theory have their lives extended using extension programs - but thats major $$$.
And right now there is no timeline to actually retire any 767s from service. Moving them to rouge isn't retirement. They'll run up more cycles and less hours there. So in theory last another 10-12 years on hours... The 87s will replace them no doubt, but so far this batch of 87s has yet to replace anything. 5 777s and 6 787s have allowed now 10 aircraft if you count the one in Singapore to join rouge... Most of the 87s coming this year are doing new routes. 11 777/787s next year. No planned retirements of 767s.
And Ben S said here there would be 767s flying with AC mainline at the end of the decade. So it sounds like it'll be the next batch of 787s IE the options that actually puts these things out to pasture.
Right now the following exists: 1.) AC has these amortized frames so no capital cost. 2.) Packed with economy seats their economics are good even at much higher oil prices. 3.) Lower oil prices (even stabilized $60.00 - AC was planning for $90.00) will cause other routes to be in the black. 4.) If oil spikes or the economy tanks they can park all of the 767s no write down required and shift everything else around.
Its really a low risk strategy. I think we'll see this with the A321s and some of the newer A320s they'll run them into the ground and replace them with 737s from the options pool of the 737 order.