FWIW, my experience weakly agrees. I used all of my GPUs on international flights last year, (I think I missed 2 or 3 upgrades, but had 8 or 9 flights). Haven't booked anything international this year yet, but my impression was that upgrades were getting easier toward the end of the year. I cleared two SYD upgrades on H fares, on of which was on a Saturday. So, yeah, pastures are a bit greener... maybe...