FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - 4Q 2014 UAL Financial results to be announced via Webcast - 22 Jan. 2015
Old Jan 23, 2015 | 8:25 am
  #80  
sinoflyer
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Originally Posted by luckypierre
How sensitive is the PRASM to evaluating HVF defections? Anecdotally, ... about 2/3rds (including a half dozen based in Houston) have moved the bulk of their business to other airlines, mostly AA.
Can a flat or declining number give any insight or is it simply overwhelmed by other, larger factors in the airline's performance (route structure, fleet choice, etc)?
It could be devastating, for AA. AA not UA has seen YOY PRASM slide more than the other Big Four carriers every month during 4Q. AA has also seen decline in traffic in spite of adding capacity all of 4Q. The reason (or in FT UA board lingo, "excuse") could be that merger integration is affecting AA's revenue management, among other factors, but if we were to continue to use the childish logic that UA's revenue performance during the last couple of years was tied squarely to "HVF"s defecting, then it's reasonable to conclude that those self-anointed "HVF"s are now flying AA, not DL, WN, nor UA that are all currently outperfroming AA on YOY PRASM.
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