FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Jan/15 - Guess AC's next two TPAC/TATL destinations!
Old Jan 19, 2015 | 9:17 am
  #9  
LittleYHZ
 
Join Date: May 2014
Programs: AC Elite 50K
Posts: 367
Here is my reasoning.

11 new wide bodies net coming in 2016. All of the planes coming in 2015 are spoken for. So no new wide body destinations in 2015 beyond what we know. DXB and DEL are starting late in the year - unless like AMS the ticket sales and strong and they get increased shortly after launch (IE using one of the planes they get early in the year 2016) they'll stay as is. No change there.

A few other factors:
-> AC likes its wide bodies to run full time in high season, do all maintenance in off season
-> Usually only launches routes a few times a week 3 or 4 depending on the place.
-> Fuel is cheap, places which have the volume but didn't have the economics may have the economics in 2016 if fuel stays down.
-> 4 of those 11 aircraft will replace 767s allowing them to move to rouge leaving 7 planes.
-> Assuming an average of 5 runs a week thats 9-10 new routes.

Therefore my guesses are:
->YUL->BEY (if the government allows it there is certainly demand.
->YVR->MNL -Volume on this run is huge. Old AC wasn't competitive here but lower average fuel prices, and 60,000 new Canadians from the country each year means VFR traffic is just huge.
->YVR -Australia - They'll boost it to the max ceiling. Look at the prices on the existing service.
->YYZ->JNB
->YYZ ->Accra huge Ghanian Community in Canada. Low oil prices will probably keep Lagos off the map unless its a tag on the former.
->YYZ->EZE - an End to tags.
->???->CTU
->YYC ->China somewhere
->YYZ->CAN
->YYZ->TPE (even though they've denied interest)
->YVR->FRA - With the JV and their aircraft their costs are probably lower than LH...
->YVR->SIN - I think this is a strong contender. No nonstops to North America... But certainly the demand. Joe Average traveller has never heard of SQ.
->YYZ->AUH

I know nobody cares about rouge but...
YVR/YYC to existing Euro destinations served by rouge as TSC flys them.
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