Originally Posted by
nova08
PHL has a ton of US loyalists that probably never gave VX a try. However VX suffered from a stiff competition at the beginning (including a drastic increase in capacity) and never got a foot hold into the market. Before VX entered PHL-SFO, US was at ~5x day and UA was at 2 to 3x day. VX entered with 2 flights, US added 1 and UA added 1, and for one summer there were 12 PHL-SFO flights. Now this upcoming summer it is back down 7. Maybe if PHL continues it's growth as a tech, healthcare, innovation hub there will be increased demand between PHL-SFO.
That's true. VX also had a limited schedule compared to US, and towards the end when it was down to 1x daily, the flight was timed for SFO based pax, not PHL based pax.
Now, UA and US have no incentive to lower fares without a LCC to fend off, and the steep fares might stifle demand.
The fares seem high now with the VX pull out.
Southwest just launched BWI-OAK year-round, and that flight might attract some pax that might otherwise be using PHL. I wouldn't be surprised if some defect to BWI and EWR for lower fare nonstop flights, thus helping demand into those airports over PHL.
Connection flights will be taken by many, but those are prone to 8 hour flight itineries and more likelihood of IRROPS. With Southwest acquiring up AirTran and limiting PHL to less than 25 Southwest daily departures, and Frontier not interested in connections through DEN from PHL, even the connection market has become less competitive.