I read Flyertalk almost every day, but have never posted a reply before.
I have used the Ritz upgrade certificates a number of times and have always been able to book a Club level room using the lowest rate shown on the Ritz location website. Also, I usually have been upgraded at checkin to a room with a better view - never a suite.
Sometimes a Package rate will be lower, and sometimes the upgrade certificate is a better deal. The Ritz in Cleveland was cheaper with a buy 2 nights club level and get one free, but at the Ritz Laguna Niguel and South Beach locations it was significantly cheaper to use the certificate.