Originally Posted by
Jagboi
I wonder if WestJet and to a lesser extent AC will be affected by lower oil prices in a negative way? Lots of people make their living from oil in the west and if the price drops too far there will be a slowdown in the western province's economy and a lot less discretionary income to be spent on travel.
Since most growth in travel on AC and WestJet over the past decade has been leisure/discretionary (if you want proof of this, just look at the rapidly shrinking J cabins and the relentless drive to increase density in Y, in case the clientele that you see in the lounges today vs. "back then", or on the planes isn't enough of a hint!), I'd expect a bursting of the Canadian real estate bubble to have just as enormous of an impact this time around. AC and CP didn't do very well in the early 1990s either, in the wake of the then real estate bubble falling apart. Both airlines, cumulatively, suffered quite significant over-capacity, and both airlines effectively destroyed themselves trying to deploy that overcapacity.
The good news for FT'ers is that a falling RE market with the associated wealth redistribution arising from such, and the lower energy cost environment may very well end up reversing the trend of decreased reliance on J. The 1990s RE bubble collapse ended up giving way to quite a vibrant business environment and wealth concentration, and that is very positive for those who dream of higher quality and more available offerings "up front". The few business travellers that exist today are notoriously stingy, with most not paying for J, but as the business environment improves, invariably J demand should increase.