Originally Posted by frenchpress

$3800 in travel spend on the CSP equals $95 in rewards, if you value Chase points at 1.25 cents. This breaks even, in absolute terms, compared to using no rewards card at all.

However, $3800 in travel spend on the Citi Double Cash card is $76 in rewards, with zero annual fee.

In order for the CSP to be better than just using the Double Cash (or another no-fee 2% card), you would need to spend $19,000/yr.

Similarly, the Arrival+ merely nets you an extra 0.2% over the Double Cash. You would need to put $44,500/yr on that card ($89 / 0.2%) in order to make it better than the Double Cash.

In short, your math is wrong because you are comparing using those cards against using a non-rewards card. Really, you should be comparing them against using the best no-fee card.

Just use Double Cash or another 2% no-fee card instead. Get the bonuses on other cards, and then cancel those other cards and revert to Double Cash.