If you look at the bigger picture, this boycott will not work. It assumes this boycott will impact United's bottom line. In my analysis, it will. However, it will help, not hurt United's profitability.

The fatal flaws are assuming that nearly all United flyers are elite members and that United has monopoly power. If, and only if, these two circumstances were true, then such a boycott may work.

First flaw is assuming a large majority of flyers are United elite members. While it varies, let's use 40% of an average flight are United elite members. The remaining 60% are "General" passengers, who are looking for the lowest price tickets and don't have any airline loyalty.

Second flaw is assuming that the only flying option is United. Most United flights have some form of competition from American, Delta, Alaskan, Southwest, etc.

SIMPLE EXAMPLE. After decades of passenger information, the airlines know that traffic patterns are fairly stable. For example, flights from Point A to Point B on the first Thursday of the month is about 200 passengers. And let's say that Delta is the other competitor on this route.

Currently 100 passengers fly United and 100 passengers fly Delta. Of the 100 United passengers, 40 are Elite and 60 are general passengers. The same with Delta, 40 Elite, 60 General.

If 20 of the 40 United Elite passengers boycott the flight, the # of United passengers will drop from 100 to 80 (note, the 20 boycotting Elites still need to travel, so they are flying the day before or after). The total drop in TOTAL traffic on this Pont A to B route will drop from 200 to 180.

However, United will "backfill" some of the missing Elite seats with General flyers. The new composition will be 20 United Elites + 70 General passengers. Delta's composition will be 40 Delta Elites + 50 General passengers. This reflect the total drop in demand from 200 to 180 passengers. Some General passenger who would normally fly Delta, are now flying United.

Note, in this example, United and Delta sell the same % of tickets at various fare classes. Because United's demand is lower, they will have more lower fare classes available for a longer period of time than Delta. Since general passenger traffic is fungible, both planes will fill up to approximately the same level.

United comes out ahead, as they will "backfill" the missing Elites with more General passengers who are subject to additional fees (baggage, etc.).

Even the drop of passengers, 200 to 180 on the first Thursday of the month, is somewhat dubious. Instead of looking at 200 passengers on 1 day (1st Thursday of the month), look at the # of passengers for a 3 day period (1st Wednesday, Thursday, Friday of the month).

If you assume 600 passengers for these 3 days, then it is likely that Thursday traffic will "backfill" with general (leisure) passengers as the lower fare buckets will sell out faster on Wednesday and Friday. Remember the boycotting United Elite passengers still need to travel, and adjusted to the day before or after.

As much as I would like to see United rescind their changes, I do not see how this boycott will work. Perhaps I'm missing something.