not sure if you're being serious with this quote....

1.) your chances of an op-up are probably at best 15%-20%. I presume you're flying in EY given the reference to the middle seat, although I guess there's a chance you're in PEY. Either way pick the seat you'll highly likely be stuck sitting in. You'd be nuts to choose a middle seat.
2.) If somehow the logic was "middle seat = higher chance of op-up", that is incorrect. it's irrelevant.