FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - United narrows Q3 PRASM Guidance - analyst expects them to lead Q4 PRASM growth
Old Oct 9, 2014, 7:36 pm
  #15  
fly18725
 
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
Originally Posted by exerda
If UA does indeed show improvement, it makes some of their past excuses really seem poor. I mean, they will have faced the Chicago ATC muck-up among several other issues, things which in the past would have been tossed out as excuses for poor performance.
Explanations (or, in your words, excuses) are not classified as "poor" because they're dismissed by FlyerTalk. United underperformed in the past and provided reasons for that underperformance. The trend appears to be changing, and it looks like the haters keep on hating.

Originally Posted by channa
It's easy to have a good increase when you have low comps to start from.

Store 1 sells $10M in Year 1, and has a 10% increase in Year 2, now selling $11M

Store 2 sells $20M in Year 1, and has an 8% increase in Year 2, now selling $21.6M

Which store is better?
You seem to be implying that UAL started from lower comps, which they did not. They actually started at higher end of the PRASM-scale post-merger (and Delta towards the lower), which explains part of the difference in month-over-month and year-over-year trends.

Originally Posted by entropy
where's the "good" news? they upped the lower end of the guidance, not the upper end. 4% increase over the pathetic comp from last year doesn't put them closer to DL.

They've gotten hammered in the last few weeks despite the cheapest oil in years.
Delta had PRASM of 14.48 in 3Q13 and expects 2-3% growth in 3Q14.
UAL had PRASM of 13.71 in 3Q13 and expects 3.5-4% growth in 3Q14.

It looks like the non-stage length adjusted numbers are closer. Stage length adjustments would be even more interesting as UAL's stage length is increasing while DAL's is declining.

In case you haven't heard, there's this thing called Ebola that's hammering airline stocks...
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