So, while everyone in the FT universe believes UA is shrinking, some even claim to a 'splinter' of their former self, this analyst thinks they are expanding, and to routes/destinations that will be less profitable.

Who is right?

I see a few possibilities:

They are shrinking stupidly.
They are shrinking intelligently / opportunistically.
They are growing stupidly.
They are growing intelligently / opportunistically.

I don't claim to know which of the above is actually what is happening.