Originally Posted by
channa
It could be the other way around -- they're doing very poorly and want to attribute the poor performance to something.
The third quarter is usually strong, the question will be relative strength. I have not been paying as close attention recently (been swamped) but UAL's guidance (from 7/24) was for +2-4% PRASM with a midpoint of 14.12 c/mi. That is in line with DAL's actual performance so far (Channa knows, but for others, DAL gives monthly results for revenue, UAL does not)
With guidance of CASM being +1-2%, and falling fuel costs,
United ought to make more money this quarter than in 2013.
What I don't understand fully though is what expenses will show up where, and also if they are meeting their targets for revenue. There is no data from UAL at this point on these issues, and I can only assume they are in the range they provided as guidence. However, the estimates (which are likely just looking at oil prices at this point and extrapolating from DAL's revenue performance; PRASM +2 in August, +3 in July) have gone up in the last 60 days, and currently show a major profit improvement of about 50% over the showing in 2Q 2013.
Put another way, I seriously doubt that this is being done now to time the expense. I think that management created a very serious problem in labor relations by trying to ram the sCO K down the sUA FAs via layoffs, and it was making getting a joint contract which UAL badly needs harder/impossible. This is a very expensive buy out, and a very good offer, and (hopefully for service and OT) will help them finally get a single FA deal, which in turn will be expensive compared to what Jeff could have gotten in 2011/2012.