I know I've posted these experiences elsewhere but am not sure where that thread is buried... somewhere around here undoubtedly.
Generally I pre-confirm my upgrades with miles or upgrade points, 95% of the time C to F, and a few times Y to C. I have never done same day upgrades with upgrade instruments.
I have a couple of data points to add to the discussion.
1.) Perhaps 3 years ago in Shanghai, I was offered a buy up (when I asked) at the ticket counter from Y to C on a flight to Narita. I am not 100% sure on the cost these days, but I want to say $200-$300. Pulled the trigger. I am not sure if Y was oversold, but that may explain it....
2.) Because on another occasion I tried to pull the same thing at the ticket counter in PVG and was told I'd need to buy a whole new ticket and waste my existing one. And I was on a bloody Y fare. No go. I sat in Y. This was also a few years ago.
I have never, once, seen NH offer any upgrades for any class of service at the gate @ SFO or NRT, but that's just one person's experience. Besides, I spend most of my time at the lounge vs hanging around with the gate lice.