When I fly on a buddy pass I make sure to have my dad who is the employee check to see how full the flights are and Hornsby other standby are listed ahead of me before going. Your chances of making vs missing a flight are dependent on so many variables you can't know for sure anytime you fly on a buddy pass. There could be bad weather in any random part of the country that could mess it all up when paid passengers are rebooted on your routes. Good luck...Fall is a good time to fly standby though since its not a peak travel time.