I will comment on my own question. We were at Alinea with a party of 4. If you have been there, you know that you pay for the tickets, which include service, way ahead of time. The only portion left was beverage. Our beverage bill came to $500 with tip included. I inadvertently tipped an additional $100 and was reminded by staff that tip was included. I made no changes, but it does indicate to me, at least at Alinea, that additional tip is not expected.

My first run it with the tip included but a separate line on the bill for gratuity was at French Laundry. I left nothing additional and, to this day, remember it as a total faux pas.

When is Paris and tip is included, I add 10% when the service is intense.

My US tipping: minimal of 20% for all restaurant. It remains closer to 20% at expensive restaurants. Up to 50% at cheaper establishments when I am with my young kids since there is so much more effort to clean up after them.

So in answer to my question, since service is not included, sounds like around 15% for Noma and Geranium.

I'm taking my sister to Europe (Paris/Copenhagen) for her 1st trip. I feel bad that the focus will be food, rather than sightseeing, but not so bad since she will be eating at Noma, Geranium, Septime, Chateaubriand, etc at my expense (plus time and effort to get the reservations!)