<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by LondonElite:
I agree that you would think that, as you get closer to departure, prices should drop, especially if the flight is already 'in the black', as you say. The trouble is that, if it were known that prices would drop close to departure, very few passengers would buy in advance, everyone hoping to benefit from the final price cuts. Only those that were tied to an itinerary would buy tickets in advance. Others would just take advantage of the bargains close to departure, eventually you'd get a seat.</font>
LondonElite, I know you are playing devil's advocate with that argument.
If people knew the price would drop, they would wait till the last minute to buy is I believe the exception rather than the rule. Let's take a look at a few scenarios. Take a family going on holiday. You need to book time off with your boss ahead of time. So does your spouse. You work in a team environment so you can't just drop everything and tell your boss, hey, I am leaving tomorrow (cheap last minute airfare) for 3 weeks. Mind covering for me till I get back? Not going to go over well. If you have kids, you know when the holidays are so again you have to book ahead of time. Not going to risk disappointing them by waiting till the day before to book air tix. You going to visit friends or relatives in another country or city. You can't just call two days before and say, hey, I am coming to stay with you for 2 weeks. You RSVP for an out of town wedding. Can you afford to chance it by booking at the last minute? Again most people plan visits weeks if not months ahead. You and spouse or boy/girl friend going on holiday, who can afford to risk ruining their well-earned 3 week holiday by waiting till the day before to book air tix just because there "may" be a price drop? Not to mention there's hotel accomodation one needs to book as well. You may be able to take off anytime, but your partner may not have that luxury. So the reasoning behind not lowering last minute fare for the fear of people waiting till the last moment to buy is a smoke screen. To suggest that most of those who would normally book months in advance would suddenly turn into last minute bargain shopper just does not hold up.
I think the people who would wait till the last moment to buy the last minute cheap fare is if it is a weekend trip to somewhere close and that they won't lose any sleep if they don't go type traveller.