???

While indeed not that many SEN will be demoted due to this change (I guess they lost much more with the P/Z changes already) it will still be some numbers. 5% off 100k is still 5.000 heavy flying members. If just 10% of them switch, that's 500 * 20k € (in average I would assume) or 10 million cash less - maybe they could be replaced by "K"-fare flyers, hardly loyal and chosing on pure price - I doubt LH will see such customers as their new core model..

So, very conservative estimation from SENs alone being 10 million € less, now add all the FTLs. For them, losing status might be even "harsher" - no soft landing to any status, no lounges at all anymore, no priority CI, no extra baggage, no exec bonus.. they'll be gone in a minute to the competition in search for the lowest fare.. and we both know that's not going to be LH.. guess it's not just 500 FTL who would leave ship in this case, and even if they bring less cash per head, their numbers are tenfold of what the SENs are..

Flying Blue has qualification by segments. In my example, the flyer would be well above 30 segments needed for Gold status (he should get 48 segments alone for monthly FRA-CDG/AMS-PEK RT's) - that might mean he might even make it to Platinum with a little bit effort. Certainly less effort needed than for the 30.000 or so missing miles from SEN-hood with M&M..

and yes, as you say, Silver at least will be easy-peasy on BA. Might even be possible to hit Gold there, wouldn't rule that out.

Well, the only change I've seen so far is that more and more SEN and FTL are being replaced with AI elite in the lounges in FRA and MUC

On a serious note: LH has managed to lose so much credibility with their announced changes (Status Stars which are a joke still on #1 ) I really doubt the can convince the many flyers who already lost their loyalty to LH to return. And they better try hard to keep those they haven't managed yet to scare away.. but it doesn't look like they'll..