Originally Posted by
DYKWIA
So, a total of 5 cancellations? Hardly 'most airlines'...
You seem to pass off your opinion as 'fact' without much to back it up.
You must be joking. Did you not read the original article cited?
Check this out for "fact" from 2013:
http://aviationweek.com/awin/airbus-...klog-shrinking
The A380 has been selling slowly for some time, which Airbus has attributed to the sluggish world economy. While that is certainly a factor, Lufthansa's decision to reduce its firm orders to 14 from 17 raises more questions.
Aside from the Lufthansa reduction, several more of the 259 firm orders for the A380 are looking shaky. Leahy says “it is publicly known” that Virgin Atlantic's order for six A380s includes cancellation rights, and the airline has indicated many times that it is unlikely to take the aircraft. He also indicates that Hong Kong Airlines, with 10 A380s on order, might “convert” its commitment to “other products.” Kingfisher Airlines is still listed with five orders, although it stopped flying in 2012.
And there are serious doubts that Air Austral will take its two A380s that were intended to fly between Paris and the French overseas departments in a very high-density configuration. Air France has delayed some of its A380 deliveries as it continues its restructuring program and cuts back on capital expenditures.
That would be a total of 3 Lufthansa, 6 Virgin Atlantic, 10 Hong Kong, 5 Kingfisher, 2 Air Austral, not to mention the AF delays and possible cancels. That's 26 cancels or reductions from 2013 alone.
Plus this from 2014:
http://www.businessinsider.com/airbu...es-a380-2014-7
Airbus Group announced this week that it has cancelled an $1.7-billion order for six of its A380 superjumbos slated for Japanese low-cost carrier Skymark Airlines.
That would be another 6 cancels on the A380 for 2014.
Plus this from 2014:
http://www.aviationnews-online.com/e...-four-engines/
Virgin Atlantic Airways again delayed its order for six A380 on account of weak global economic conditions, and Turkish Airlines reduced its estimated order number for the A380 to six from the earlier indicated fifteen.
That Turkish reduction from 15 to 6 A380s is another 9 reductions in A380 sales.
Between all the cancels, planned reductions, and expected cancels and reductions in the coming years, not to mention the discount from $400 million list price to the current asking price of about $200 million as previously cited, Airbus would need to sell twice as many A380s as it originally projected (original projection 750, and it isn't even close to halfway there) to BREAK EVEN on its investment--not even considering the money it loses on the production of each and every A380 at the new discounted price.
My opinion has plenty of facts to back it up. My opinion is based on those facts. [Removed unnecessarily personalized characterization and personal attack] the A380 was a very bad bet for Airbus.
Originally Posted by
WindowSeat123
I suspect you must be an analyst betting the A380 will fail. If your are investing in the failure of the project, then of course you will say its gonna fail. The sources you quoted are also from analysts, bet it never occurred to you they may have an agenda or could never be wrong in their predictions? You did not provide hard figures to back up your claim. Show me Airbus's spreadsheets. What you quoted are future projections, which can change. Airbus is discounting the plane now, will it discount for the future? Market trends can change. I guess you never thought of that.
Analysts who predicted the failure of a product can sometimes be wrong. As an example, take the turboprop ATR 72. A little over ten years ago, things looked very bleak for the ATR program. They had orders for only 5 ATR 72s, all the analysts were saying jets were the way of the future for regional airliners and ATR should shut down production and just be a product support company for existing ATR 72s still flying. Well, what a difference a decade made. Since then ATR has sold over 800 planes. Quite a turnaround eh?
Long story short, I'm not sold on the A380 being a failure...or a success. We'll see in the next few years.
Wow. The FACTS are that Airbus projected it needed to sell 750 A380s to break even. It isn't even close to that mark now 14 years into the A380 program. It has produced and/or has future orders for only a total of 359 A380s as of today (including most of those that are now canceled and also including the 50 more A380s ordered by Emirates, the only carrier ordering MORE)--and the future orders are shrinking, being delayed, or canceled outright. I've shared plenty of facts and evidence of canceled orders from numerous airlines, yet you don't want to accept it.
[Removed personal attack and OMNI/PR political characterization]
Originally Posted by
WindowSeat123
What you quoted are future projections, which can change. Airbus is discounting the plane now, will it discount for the future? Market trends can change. I guess you never thought of that.
Long story short, I'm not sold on the A380 being a failure...or a success. We'll see in the next few years.
On top of everything I already shared as evidence, here is another that puts the FUTURE of the A380 in perspective. From
http://aviationweek.com/awin/airbus-...klog-shrinking
However, the major shift toward larger jets long predicted by Airbus has not happened yet. And the manufacturer is making the move tougher for airlines by offering highly efficient twin jets. Chief operating officer for customers, John Leahy, says airlines would have to install 550-560 seats in an A380 for the aircraft to match the unit costs of the A350-1000 that will enter the market in 2017. In other words, essentially all current operators are flying the aircraft in configurations that are much less attractive in terms of unit costs.
Airbus made a bad bet in the 1990s that airlines would prefer bigger 4 engine jets. It turns out that they were wrong--except for Emirates and a few routes that justify the unit costs for the A380. But not even close to enough to recoup Airbus' initial $25 billion investment to develop the A380 (750 A380s at the original asking price of $400 million)...not to mention the fact that they are discounting the A380 by such substantial sums now ($400 million down to near $200 million per A380), which means they are losing money on the production of every new A380.
Now with their own A350 that enters the market in 2017, Airbus has offered another alternative to the 787 that permits even lower unit costs than even the discounted A380 at above $200 million a jet.
Airbus made a bad bet. The A380 program was a bad investment for Airbus. The numbers are quite clear, which is why Airbus developed the A350 after seeing its A380 numbers disappoint and watching Boeing's 787 numbers soar. Unfortunately, Airbus loses money on the A380.
The A380 is a wonderfully engineered plane...but not a success in terms of profit and business. That is called a business failure.