Originally Posted by
tireman77
I figured there were more than a few hundred regular participants. the 20/80 rule had my estimate much higher than that. With that information, indeed, the odds are much lower.
Obviously it very much depends on the definition of "regular participant", but for the sake of the arguments let's define it as "someone who posts in the AC forum at least 10x per year" - the triple digit figure is quite accurate. If we include any FTer (even if the post count is zero) I'd estimate there are a few thousand FTers who read the AC forum somewhat regularly (let's say at least once a month).
However, the number of people who read / get their information from FT is substantially higher. At any given time the number of guests reading threads in a forum is substantially higher than the number of FTers.
Originally Posted by
tireman77
Not sure about the 120000 neither, or my recollection of statistics classes is blurry (more than likely). I meant that 19/20 there would be one on every flight, is the correct term more 5% margin of error versus statistical significance? My bad for using the wrong terminology.
I assumed you meant 98%-99% when you said "close to 100%" - which is very different from 95%.
Depending on which distribution function is used we'd roughly need anywhere from 80k - 160k flights taken by FTers to reach a >95% probability - and that still wouldn't include oddities such as most FTers boycotting Rouge flights (on the 763).
Maybe I would remember the exact calculations of the various distribution functions if the professor had used AC/FT as an example.
