Originally Posted by
Jasper2009
Interesting estimate. I only took a few elementary courses in statistics, but would tend to very much disagree with your estimate.
AC operates >40000 flights with wide-body aircrafts per year.
Since flying patterns are unequally distributed, we'd have to at least triple that figure to achieve a "near 100%" figure.
The resulting statement "FTers take at least 120000 flights operated by AC widebody aircrafts each year" seems like a gross exaggeration considering there are only a few hundred regular AC forum participants (+ possibly a few thousand infrequent posters and lurkers).
I figured there were more than a few hundred regular participants. the 20/80 rule had my estimate much higher than that. With that information, indeed, the odds are much lower.
Not sure about the 120000 neither, or my recollection of statistics classes is blurry (more than likely). I meant that 19/20 there would be one on every flight, is the correct term more 5% margin of error versus statistical significance? My bad for using the wrong terminology.