Out of X pax it is difficult to guess, easier to guess the total number of members in the program.

AY transports roughly 25900 pax each day, so with your guess, only 2 plats would fly each day? I think there are more plats in the air each day.

And if one devides the numbers into each flight (not a correct method statistically) there would not be even one plat on each longhaul? (269 pax with plats at 0,01% rate gives it would take 37 longhaul departures before AY sees one plat.) Very far in between. There surely are many card holders on each longhaul. (unless, again, they put random non status pax in group one)