Originally Posted by
Markam
Not to be nitpicky, but out of occupational hazard, let me point out that your facts do not answer the OP's question, because we do not have information about the "counterfactual". For example, although traffic has increased, it may have increased more in the absence of the "hassles of flying", so that the answer to the OP's question may actually be a resounding "yes", for all we know.
I agree. There are way too many variables for any meaningful conclusions about anything. As a result, the statistics can be manipulated anyway you want them to turn out. A few general thoughts before trying out some specifics:
- On a macro level, many of us made decisions about reducing or completely stopping flying a LONG time ago.
- Many of us significantly increased our drive/fly perimeter. From Washington DC, I have driven to places such as Huntsville, Ottawa, Atlanta, and New Orleans on business trips. Until the TSA came out of the swamp, I would have flown to all those destinations without hesitation.
- The Pre Check extortion has simply stopped the bleeding.
- I personally do not believe that aviation accidents over the past 15 years have made a bit of difference.
OK, here is my short list of the variables I would like to see held constant, one at a time:
- If security was the same as it was on Sept 10, 2001, would the number of passengers be more or less than they are now?
- How much does the reduction in aircraft size and services affect a person's decision to fly or not to fly?
- Have government and corporate travel budgets increased or decreased over the past 15 years?
- If the budgets described above are fixed and only adjusted for inflation, are companies and agencies able to afford more or less trips per year?
- How does the cost of gasoline affect a person's decision to fly?
- What is the effect from companies who reduced or eliminated their corporate travel and invested in video-teleconferencing or permanently assigning staff to a remote location?
- What is the effect from companies who expanded or went offshore and now must travel?
- If technology improvements were not considered, how would the numbers change?
- If companies that outsourced were held constant, how would this affect the numbers?
- How has the availability of airline seats per person in the population increased or decreased?