I'm 7 for 51 this year. The only upgrade longer than a short one hour flight was LAX - Den (6am) and LAX- HNL on a 767 and it was only after the doors closed.
My specific question is regarding whether they exclude passengers likely to pay for an upgrade from CPU's. I've paid a few times lately and I think I have been singled out. Last week I was flying with a colleague who shares the same admin. He is also a 1K and we had the same booking class. I was #1 on the waitlist and he was #3 because I checked in earlier. He ended up clearing and I didn't, how is that possible?
Also I have an ANC-SFO flight tomorrow and it is a 6 row 737. I have a decent booking class as it was last minute and they cleared 10 seats and I'm still #1 on the waitlist. I honestly believe there is something going wrong with my account.