FWIW - The last COPA annual report that I read (2012) said that their contract with MP runs through 2015. They did not say anything about whether they hoped to extend it or not.

While there is certainly expense associated with setting up a new program, I am sure there are outsourcing companies that can handle the whole thing. God help us if COPA IT is given the task. There would still be a lot of marketing costs, of course. And, as noted above, the divorce would be messy - maybe lots of COPA-only fliers with miles orphaned with UA. One thing we don't know are the exit provisions of the contract with MP, so maybe it won't be as bad as I expect.

One thing COPA would get with their own program is the opportunity to sell miles. If the AV forum is to be believed, a lot of people are buying Lifemiles to use on other airlines.

Personally, I would prefer they stay with MP, as I don't need the complication of tracking an additional program. Also, if I chose to go with one or the other, then I lose privileges with one of the airlines. For me, even though I fly roughly the same number of miles on CM and UA, I would probably stick with UA since I would rather have the privileges during travel in the USA and the occasional Asia trip. That said, I'm on an AA EXP challenge right now, and plan to split my flying between OW and *A in the future. If the change makes life tougher, I probably go with AA. As a Colombia resident, I would also take another look at AV too.