Originally Posted by
BoeingBoy
Given my friend FWAAA's comments re: CLT in the past, I think (and certainly hope) he's being sarcastic of those so in a hurry to start closing hubs - CLT, ORD, or whichever.
Yes, post #1538 was sarcasm. Subsequent posts are not sarcastic.
I've posted my views/opinion of CLT before; here's a summary.
IMO, Charlotte will not be closed/dehubbed/eliminated.
But that does not mean that it will escape unscathed. It produces lower unit revenues of any East Coast hub (I mis-spoke above). 80% of its passengers are connecting, a higher percentage than any other legacy hub in the USA.
CLT is ideal for connecting people around its immediate area (the southeast states) and is ideal for connecting people from the NE to the SE and from the NE to Florida.
Thing is, AA already serves many of the biggest markets (from where the bulk of the passengers originate or end their trips) with mainline planes from ORD/DFW/MIA.
Earlier in this thread, multiple people asserted that new AA would not fly lots of 1000 mile RJ routes to connect every Mayberry with CHI or DFW. Funny thing about that: In some cases, AA already does and in other cases, it's amazing how many RJs are flown 700-1000 miles by pmUS to/from CLT. CLT is the king of long RJ routes.
Anyway, with the expected contraction of Dash8s and 50-seat CRJs (in part due to the new federal pilot regulations and in part due to their fuel inefficiency), some of the Mayberry-like towns served from CLT are going to lose their air service if they can't support larger RJs or mainline planes. Unless they come up with local subsidies.
That's going to drive some contraction at CLT. pmUS has been filling its European flights from CLT in part with bargain-hunting passengers from big cities, not just residents of Mayberry from those Dash8s and CRJs. Some of those big cities already have nonstops to Europe flown by pmAA and others have mainline AA service to the AA gateways.
Therein lies the problem. Some of the CLT destinations are RJ-only yet pmAA already serves them with mainline planes from ORD and/or DFW, so those RJs won't be as necessary once the low-fare Advantage fares disappear and AA routes its long-haul domestic passengers via ORD and/or DFW (where AA already has mainline equipment).
Example: JAX. JAX-west coast traffic can be routed via mainline planes via DFW, reducing the need for seats on the JAX-CLT RJs. Of course, that reduces the need for as many seats on the CLT-West coast nonstops. Ruh-Roh. Once the inefficient routings are reduced/rationalized, CLT's activity will likely taper off. There are other examples as well.
Yes, CLT is a very cheap airport with very low per-passenger enplanement costs. But if the choice is flying passengers on high-cost RJs to get to/from CLT v. flying them on lower-casm mainline planes (that are cheaper to operate), which one will win out? Cheap landing fees and rent at CLT won't cancel out the much higher RJ CASM issues. Notta chance.
Originally Posted by
ccengct
I think most people would say that the "very small" is appropriate language for O&D at Amarillo or Burlington, Vt. Charlotte O&D is somewhere around #20-25 nationwide, depending on how you slice and dice markets and how you aggregate airports in metro areas that have more than one. That's low-end for a sustainable hub, although the O&D figure for CLT has not enjoyed the boost from WN that some other markets have.
Yes, CLT's O&D is just a little less than STL and about tied with MIA. And US doesn't even get it all. DL, UA, WN, B6 and others already serve CLT and siphon off some O&D (by definition, every passenger boarded by those airlines is an O&D passenger as none of those airlines connect passengers at CLT).
Originally Posted by
ccengct
But the flip side is that if AA+US walks away from CLT, the biggest winner will be DL -- and it's all about connecting traffic in the southeast, not O&D at CLT. I don't think Doug Parker wants to give that kind of birthday present to Richard Anderson.
This paragraph confuses me. First, AA isn't going to "walk away" from CLT. Secondly, DL already serves all of its hubs nonstop from CLT, including ATL, SLC, DTW, MSP, JFK and LGA. Delta isn't going to start connecting passengers at CLT no matter what new AA does.
Some of the tiny Mayberry-like towns served by Dash8s and CRJs? The same factors that imperil their US-service also hits DL; if those towns can't support some 76-seaters, they'll likely lose their air service as the 50-seaters go away.