I just can't figure this out - I suppose it is a mileage valuation question more than anything. Which is the better option (4x1-way flights for the same flight)?

45,300 Thank You Points
18,000 UR transferred to BA + $68
18,000 MR transferred to BA + $68

It's not an option for me, but throw in for comparison sake:

$556 Barclay Arrival redemption

Any thoughts?