I bought a U fare back in January for a flight that leaves Friday 6/6 from LAX to MEL. I bought the higher fare so that I would have a better chance at having my sure-to-be-waitlisted GPU clear. There are 14 business seats left on the flight.

So I'm checking out the fares, fare classes, and seat availability for the same flight for this coming Friday, thinking that it might be a good predictor of my chances of getting the upgrade cleared.

Here's the thing...E fares are now being sold as the cheapest ticket for the flight this coming Friday (with E being the next highest bucket from U). Only they are $200 LESS than the U fare I bought in January. So if people buy the E fares, and want to upgrade, I'm left up the creek, having paid a higher fare 5 months ago.

Would it be wise, if the same thing happens next week, to switch to the flight with the lower fare and pay the change fee. It seems my upgrade chance would improve. Is this even possible?