Originally Posted by
davidviolin
I dont argue with most of your statements, but are you assuming all 90 million accounts spend $10k or more per year? I think the percentage of MP accounts spending $10k or more per years is quite low. The interesting question would be how many customers spend more than $10,000 a year and and how many would run to another airline. Hard to say.
No - I was only saying that if 100,000 people with an average spend of $10K per year left it would be $1B.
Most people that don't fly that much (Kettles) aren't impacted. They likely fly the most direct and cheapest flights. UA likely has several Million Elites. 100,000 is a small number of the total Elites. Those most impacted are those that fly frequently (GS and 1Ks and Plats) and it is from that group that the 100,000 is coming from. I know so many former UA travelers that are now flying AA.
The $10K is an average. Yes you have those earning 1K with $5K spend (hard to fly 100K miles with less than $5K). Most mileage runners and FlyerTalkers are likely more in the $7K/year range for 100K miles. And there are many both 1K and GS that are way above that that are leaving.
So $10K is an average. I think the $5K per year 1Ks are very few - only the extreme mileage runners and they are a very small % - like .00x.
I find my annual spend (now all AA instead of UA) is over $7K per year for 100K EQM and goes as high as $14K/year. Yes - $14K is not that much - but if 100,000 people like me stop spending that much on UA and now spend it on AA - then it is significant.