Originally Posted by
pauleeepaul
Check to see what EF is showing as availability for paid business class fares. More discount inventory (I fares) suggests a higher likelihood of unsold seats being available closer to departure. IME AA will not let a business class seat go out unoccupied without first releasing the upgrade inventory (although as mentioned it is increasing closer to time of departure); sadly the same cannot be said for award travel.
Exactly. I am returning from London tomorrow and it has shown no C inventory for weeks, but last night it went to C7. The entire time though it showed "7" for all paid business class fares and the seat map showed dozens of empty seats. What you can't see on Expertflyer is the size of the wait list. And as said, no guarantees.