Data points:

Applied for Visa card in October, got 60k. Asked to bump up to 80k, got a message from Chase saying they would bump. 20k additional points showed on a Chase statement -- but nothing posted to IHG.

Canceled Visa and applied for MC. Got 60; same routine with Chase. This time the 20k DID post to IHG.

So I got 140k (instead of 160k) points between the two cards. If I try to press Chase on the first 20k, they may get suspicious about the second 20k that did post, so I think I'll just lay low and not risk clawback.