There was an error in your formula for AmEx Everyday on groceries.
=if(Spend!$C3>=6000,12000+(Spend!$C3-6000),Spend!$C3)
It should be:
=if(Spend!$C3>=6000,12000+(Spend!$C3-6000),Spend!$C3*2)
Also, if you give PRG 4x on airfare, you should give CSP 3x on airfare to be consistent.
Originally Posted by
SpunkyGD
Point being that rotating bonuses, even quarterly, probably incentivize account holders on a large scale to spend more in categories (or with specific merchant options) they may not otherwise have done so. Presumably if you would be spending on those specific merchants and categories over the year you might be able to time some things to maximize the benefit, which is more "gamey" (at the very least, takes more effort). Otherwise you rely on the categories aligning with your passive, unbiased spending patterns, which I have some trouble with is all.
I'd guess, based on how people tend to idealize in hypothetical behavior, that some consumers are overly favorable and calculate a best-case scenario where 5x applies to everything possible. It's hard to factor this even in a pretty robust model.
Fair enough. From a practicality perspective, it would be difficult to elegantly incorporate 5x rotating category cards into your spreadsheet anyway.
Originally Posted by
SpunkyGD
Great! That's excellent. I would not personally characterize a card as effectively being zero fee based on some variable, which fuels the psychology that can make these instruments become insidiously expensive (e.g. driving higher spending, which is well documented). For some people, it may also lead to making false comparisons to products in different categories, which further reinforces the value image ("It's essentially zero fee for me yet has all these other great perks! It's as if it's for free!")
There is a fee, or there is not a fee. Just as valid a way of looking at it is that "x" reward is wiped out by overhead of an annual fee! I think it's best to acknowledge there is a fee, but there might be a greater aggregate return given specific conditions.
I see what you're saying, but if you only use a card when there is no fee (like a lot of people on this forum), then there really is no fee. Perhaps it's best for people like that to just compare the benefits earned number, and not "value," which adjusts AFs.
Originally Posted by
SpunkyGD
Booking on the Amex travel website yields an additional point per dollar on full MR cards. So the PRG actually does provide 4x MR for airfare booked on their travel site, if I am not mistaken. This applies to Platinum as well, so you do technically get 2x MR on airfare through their site. It may not be the best value vs booking through other channels.
Gotcha, I remember reading that the AmEx rewards portal (similar to the UR Mall) was recently shut down. I must have mixed that up with the AmEx travel portal.
Originally Posted by
SpunkyGD
Hey, play with the spreadsheet!!
I haven't yet bothered plugging in a model with the Freedom because I'm not certain on a fair way to factor in the bonus timing.
I think 5x toward $1,500 on restaurants, 5x toward $3,000 on gas, and 5x toward $1,500 on department stores would be a decent (not perfect) assumption for the spreadsheet. That's what the bonus categories looked like for 2013 and 2014.
Originally Posted by
SpunkyGD
That said, if you are a single person with a total ~$18K spend:
• Cell phone and high speed internet (~$170/mo?)
• Grocery spend around $75/week (half of
this poll)
• $200/mo or $6/day on restaurants
• $500-700 or so in other tuff
Places the Chase Ink/CSP and combined (1.9-2.6%) well ahead of PRG (1.7%) but neck-in-neck with Everyday (2.4%) and far below the Everyday Preferred (4%). At this budget point the cell phone and internet become some of the biggest expenditures (which kind of blows hard) and the Chase Ink alone isn't a bad deal.
However this all assumes point values as if redeemed with a transfer partner (around 2¢). At lower spend levels
are you getting enough to usefully apply toward award travel? It seems to me that across the board, with lower budgets it might actually be more useful to look at cash rewards, and redeeming UR for statement credit or cash (1¢) you are much better off with the Blue Cash Preferred or Cap One Quicksilver.
I may be an exception because much of my spend is concentrated in travel and dining, which makes CSP+Ink come out ahead by quite a bit. Plus, I place a premium on UR points since United has a hub nearby and I'm a fan of Hyatt. For people that spend a larger percentage on groceries I can see how the AmEx Everyday cards can be a clear winner.
I agree with your point about people with lower spend levels using cash back. They'd probably be better off just knocking out sign-up bonus after sign-up bonus anyway though.