I was thinking about this exact topic today on a return flight from KOA-YVR-YYC.

I talked to the gate agent a bit on YVR-YYC and she mentioned that "at least" 3/4 of the full A320 (AC202) this morning at 7am was people transferring from HNL/KOA/OGG to YYC, and that the next 2 flights (7:50am and 9:00am) were also usually full of Hawaii-YYC passengers as the connection is pretty tight for 202. Now some of those go on to YEG & Saskatchewan too, like the guy in front of me, but it's an obvious trend that many (most?) of the Hawaii passengers aren't YVR bound.

What is the actual demand for YVR-HNL/KOA/OGG without all of the transfer passengers from YEG/YYC/YYZ or even YUL (like the 6 people in front of me in the security line)? I don't think there is nearly enough traffic to warrant daily service to Hawaii out of YVR without all the transfers.

IMO one of the problems AC has is that they force everyone to connect through YVR to go to Hawaii and the alternative (singular), is the seasonal YYC-OGG flight which is a 4 times a week oddity priced at a huge premium. Is this due to the lack of planes (767s) needed to fly this route based in YYC?

A YYZ-HNL flight makes a huge amount of sense, as does something like a once a week YYC-KOA or a daily YYC-OGG. Back when I lived in YYZ, I ended up going UA via SFO to HNL which was actually a decent flight. Also could do ORD or DEN but those are sketchier in the winter.

A big chunk of potential AC traffic also goes YYC-SFO-HNL/KOA/OGG 100% with UA since AC abandoned the YYC-SFO route, and I actually greatly prefer that to going through YVR. YVR is a great airport to enter/leave but transferring is a nightmare. US Preclearance in YYC when routing through SFO makes the transfer very easy, while the US transfer shuffle in YVR has to be one of the worst possible (no Nexus, one security line, massive walk).

Additionally, Hawaiian, Alaska and WJ are also all VERY competitive on this route, both with price and routing. Last year I went with Alaska through SEA and it was an enjoyable flight, preclearance in YYC, nice transfer in SEA and a nice early arrival time in KOA and was priced at roughly 60% of AC.

So I think the question of why there isn't a daily YVR-HNL is tied into why there isn't a YYZ-HNL and why there isn't a YYC-KOA (and potentially why AC killed the YYC-HNL it tried back a couple years ago). AC needs the transfer pax in YVR. Maybe this changes with the 787?